要素市场化改革与供需结构错配

Factor Marketization Reform and Mismatch of Supply-demand Structure

我国服务业部门GDP占比偏低,而工业部门长期受结构性产能过剩问题困扰,这种三大产业层面上的供需结构错配是供给侧结构性改革面临的突出问题之一。本文构筑了一个包含土地生产要素的三要素三部门动态一般均衡结构变迁模型,证明当存在某些体制性障碍导致服务业部门无法顺利地吸纳土地、劳动等生产要素流入时,那么从农业部门转移出来的生产要素就只能更多地流入到管制较少的工业部门。在产品间不完全替代情况下,这种要素市场改革的滞后会导致服务业部门有效需求得不到满足和工业部门产能过剩现象并存的供需结构错配问题,使得经济发展依赖外部需求。因而,加快要素市场化改革进程是进一步推进供给侧结构性改革的应有之义。

In China,the share of GDP contributed by the service sector is too low,while the manufacturing sector has an excessive production capacity.This sectoral mismatch of supply and demand poses a challenge to supply-side structural reform.What causes this problem?What are its macroeconomic consequences?Answers to these fundamental questions will have important implications for ongoing structural reform in China.To answer these questions,we first use Groningen sector-level data to show that in China,agriculture s share of employment(30%)is much larger than its share of GDP(10%),meaning that there is a severe misallocation of production factors between agriculture and non-agricultural(manufacturing and services)sectors.Institutional barriers,such as hukou and land policy,and slow factor-marketization reform are the main reasons for this factor misallocation.To analyze the effects of these institutional barriers on the Chinese macroeconomy,we develop a three-factor,three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of structural change.In our model,demand for service goods increases as income grows.However,institutional barriers imply that factor reallocation to the service sector is highly regulated.There are two consequences of these results.First,the supply of service goods is depressed even though the demand for services increases,i.e.,a mismatch of demand and supply exists in the service sector.Second,as income grows,more and more factors are allocated to the manufacturing sector even though the demand for manufacturing goods declines,leading to excessive production capacity in the manufacturing sector.As these effects of institutional barriers on factor reallocation can lead to severe macroeconomic downturns,it is important that structural reform is focused on factor marketization,such that these institutional barriers are reduced.To evaluate our model quantitatively,we calibrate it to match Chinese aggregate and sectoral data from 1992 to 2014.Our model can generate both the supply-demand mismatch in the service sector and the excessive production capacity in the manufacturing sector throughout the process of structural change in China.Second,we conduct several counterfactual policy experiments using our quantitative model.We find that marketization reforms can lead to a higher GDP share for the service sector and less excessive production capacity in the manufacturing sector.The policy implications of our results are profound.First,factor marketization reform should be accelerated,such that factors can be reallocated more freely from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors(urbanization).Second,institutional barriers that depress the service sector should be removed,such that more factors can be allocated to the service sector to match the growing demand for service goods.Our work contributes to the literature on multi-sectoral growth and structural change by introducing a two-level constant elasticity of substitution structure to the standard structural change model with homothetic preferences.This feature enables our model to generate an inverse U shaped pattern for the manufacturing sector without non-homotheticity.We also generalize the standard structural change model by considering land as a factor input for the production of all three sectors.Our study also contributes to the literature on China s structural change.Most of the research in this strand of enquiry focuses solely on the structural change between agriculture and non-agriculture;distortions in the factor markets is rarely considered and quantitative analysis seldom performed.Thus,we consider all three sectors and factor distortions in a quantitative structural change model.In summary,we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model of structural change to investigate the causes and consequences of supply-demand mismatch in China.We find that the main reasons for this mismatch are institutional barriers,such as hukou and land policy,and slow factor-marketization reform.Accelerating factor marketization reform to remove these institutional barriers will alleviate the sectoral supply-demand mismatch problem,increase aggregate demand and improve macroeconomic performance in China.