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供给侧视角下中国工业发展动力转换与调整空间——基于省份23个细分行业的面板数据分析

Dynamic Mechanism and Adjustment Potential of China’s Industrial Structure From Perspective of Supply-Side:An Analysis With Panel Data Based on 23 Segments
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摘要 本文借鉴索罗经济增长函数,运用固定效用模型对中国各省份1999—2014年的23个工业行业,进行时间、省际和行业的三维交叉研究,从供给侧视角探讨工业发展动力转换与调整空间。研究结果表明,中国各省份工业的资本生产率差异系数变化幅度要大于全要素生产率和劳动生产率,各省份劳动生产率与全要素生产率正相关关系明显,资本生产率和全要素生产率呈倒U型关系。中国区域工业生产率从高到低排序依次是东部地区、中部地区、西部地区和东北地区,生产率的增长率则是中部地区、西部地区相对较高却收敛,而东北地区的工业调整能力最弱。重工业全要素生产率和劳动生产率水平高于轻工业,但资本生产率要低于轻工业。2008年后各省份轻工业生产率的增长率开始反超重工业,重工业资本生产率和全要素生产率则出现较大范围的负增长,而产能过剩行业的发展出现地区分化。未来中国各省份工业结构走势主要依赖于生产要素的回报率,均衡发展的关键在于对资源的吸引和全要素生产率的提高。 Solow economic growth function is used to three-dimensional study of time,province and industry with fixed effects regression about 23 industrial sectors from 1999 to 2014.Focus on dynamic mechanism and adjustment potentail of provincial industrial structure from the Supply-side perspective.The result shows that the rate of change of variation coefficient in capital productivity is larger than that of total factor productivity and labor productivity.The positive correlation between labor productivity and total factor productivity is obvious in each province.The correlation between capital productivity and total factor productivity is inverted U-shaped.The order of industrial productivity in China from high to low is followed by eastern,central,western and northeastern China.The productivity growth rate is relatively high in the central and western regions but converges while the northeastern industrial restructuring capability is the weakest.The total factor productivity and labor productivity of heavy industry are higher than those of light industry,but the capital productivity is lower than that of light industry.After 2008,the growth rate of light industry productivity in provinces started to exceed heavy industry.The capital productivity of heavy industry and total factor productivity showed a larger negative growth while the development of overcapacity industry showed a regional differentiation.The trend of provincial industrial structure in the future will mainly depend on the rate of return of the factors of production.The key to balanced development lies in the attraction of resources and the improvement of total factor productivity.
作者 袁丽静 杜秀平 YUAN Li-jing;DU Xiu-ping(Institute of Economic and Social Development,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)
出处 《东北财经大学学报》 2020年第1期36-46,共11页 Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics
基金 辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目“供给侧视角下辽宁产业结构转型升级的动力机制研究”(L16AJY004) 辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“辽宁绿色发展战略定位与重点方向研究”(LN2019X12) 东北财经大学校级科研项目“环境规制、政府补贴对企业技术创新的耦合影响机制研究”(DUFE2017Y07)
关键词 供给侧 省份工业结构 生产率 贡献率 动力转换 supply-side industrial structure productivity contribution rate dynamic mechanism
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