洪水概率预报评价指标研究

Research on assessment criteria in probabilistic flood forecasting

在分析现有洪水概率预报评价指标的基础上,建立了洪水概率预报的“精度-可靠度”联合评价指标体系.“精度”指标用于评价倾向值预报的准确性,包括确定性系数、相对误差等指标;“可靠度”指标用于评价区间预报的合理性,包括覆盖率、区间离散度等指标.其中,在“可靠度”评价指标中,提出了一个新的评价指标,即覆盖率判定系数,用以评价多个区间预报结果的整体合理性.以淮河王家坝区间流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明:“精度-可靠度”联合评价指标体系可以对洪水概率预报结果的合理性做出更全面的评价.

Based on the analysis of the evaluating indicators used in the study of probabilistic flood forecasting,a system of assessment criteria in probabilistic flood forecasting is established named as the“accuracy-reliability”joint assessment criteria system.In this system,the“accuracy”estimation refers to assess the precision of preferred prediction using the indicators like Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency,relative errors and so on.While the“reliability”assessment means to evaluate the reasonability of predicted interval using the indicators like containing ratio,deviation index and so on.Meanwhile,a new“reliability”assessment indicator named the containing ratio coefficient is proposed to assess the comprehensive reasonability of multiple predicted intervals.The accuracy-reliability joint assessment criteria system is tested in Wangjiaba subbasin in Huaihe River.The results suggested that this system gives a synthetic evaluation of the probabilistic flood forecasting.