经济周期下货币政策与房地产价格关系研究

Research on the Relation between Monetary Policy and Real Estate Price in the Economic Cycle

在分析货币政策与房地产价格互动关系基础上,选取相应变量建立SVAR模型进行实证研究。结果发现:短期内货币政策和房价存在一定的互动关系,但它们之间作用的显著性不同,存在非对称性,货币政策冲击对房价的作用十分有限,而房价冲击对货币政策的作用较为明显。同时,房价也影响实体经济的物价和产出水平,应是货币政策制定需要考虑的因素。

Based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between monetary policy and real estate price,this paper sets up a SVAR model using proper variables to study the relationship between monetary policy and the house price.We find that in the short run,there is a certain interaction between monetary policy and house price,but the significance of their interaction is different and also asymmetry.Monetary policy shock has a very limited impact on house prices,but house prices shock has a more significant impact on monetary policy.Also,we learn that house price affects the real economy's price level and output level,and we suggest that house price should be a considerable factor of monetary policy making.