从城镇化大趋势看房地产市场的未来发展

The future development of real estate market from the perspective of urbanization trend

房地产问题本质上也是城镇化问题,未来10亿人口的分布结构决定了房地产市场的底层需求结构。同时,城镇化的问题也制约着房地产市场自身的发展,例如产业结构和由此带来的人口流动决定一个城市的房地产市场需求是否可持续,土地供给结构则决定了住宅用地是否可以满足潜在的住房需求。总之,房地产与城镇化之间存在非常紧密的互动关系。长期来看,中国的城镇化率将在未来10年突破70%,这意味着2亿人口增量,同时,未来的城镇化将以城市圈与城市群为依托,形成新的城市发展与住房发展特征。

The problem of real estate is essentially one of urbanization. The distribution structure of the future 1 billion people determines the underlying demand structure of the real estate market.At the same time,the problem of urbanization also restricts the development of the real estate market itself.For example,the industrial structure and the resulting population migration determine whether the real estate market demand of a city is sustainable,and the land supply structure determines whether the residential land can meet the potential housing demand.In short,there is a very close interaction between real estate and urbanization. In the long run,China’s urbanization rate will exceed 70% in the next 10 years,which means an increase of 200 million people. At the same time,the future urbanization will be based on the urban circle and urban agglomeration,forming new urban development and housing development characteristics.