珠三角经济圈“经济-社会-生态-人口-土地”城镇化耦合协调发展的时空分析

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Coupling and Coordinative Development of“Economy-Society-Ecology-Population-Land”Urbanization in the Pearl River Delta Economic Circle

针对当前多维度城镇化的发展失衡,将珠三角经济圈中15座城市划分为三大区域,以2007—2016年间的城镇化数据为基础,构建多维度城镇化综合评价体系,测算不同区域和城市的城镇化发展水平,运用耦合协调模型分析在区域协调发展战略下多系统城镇化协调发展水平的时空差异。研究结论:15座城市的各类子系统城镇化指数总体为上升趋势,但差异显著。在区域龙头城市的协调带动下,落后城市的城镇化综合指数有所提升,区域城镇化差距缩小;单个城市的城镇化耦合协调度等级最高仅达到中级协调水平,除龙头城市外,其余城市处于失调范畴,且5个子系统协调发展的城市数量为零;城镇化耦合协调类型总体向高级别类型发展,处于协调类型的城市在空间布局上呈现出从“倒U形”向“西低东高W形”、再向“同步纵深W形”的演变格局,表明高水平城镇化城市对落后城市的城镇化发展在空间距离上存在良性促进作用。

In view of the unbalanced development of multi-dimensional urbanization,15 cities in the Pearl River Delta economic circle were divided into three regions.Based on the urbanization data from 2007 to 2016,a comprehensive evaluation system of multi-dimensional urbanization was constructed to measure the urbanization development level of different regions and cities.The spatial and temporal differences of the coordinated development level of multi-system urbanization were analyzed by adopting the coupling coordinate model under the strategy of regional coordinative development.The results showed that:(1)The urbanization index of various subsystems in 15 cities was on the rise,but the difference was obvious.Driven and coordinated by the regional leading cities,the comprehensive urbanization indexes of backward cities had been improved,and the regional urbanization gap had been narrowed.(2)The highest level of urbanization coupling coordination of a single city was only on the intermediate level.Except the leading cities,the other cities were all in imbalance,and no cities grew with the coordinated development of five subsystems.(3)The type of coupling and coordination of urbanization generally developed to the high-level.The spatial layout of cities in the coordination type presented a evolution from inverted U-shaped to W-shaped,low in the west and high in the east,and then to W-shaped in the synchronous depth,which showed that high-level urbanized cities had a positive impact on promoting the development of urbanization in backward cities in space distance.