周期均值叠加法在中小河流中长期水文预报中的应用

Application of periodic mean superposition method in medium and long-term hydrological forecast of medium and small rivers

介绍了周期均值叠加模型的原理、方法和计算过程。采用凤山水文站长序列年最高水位资料,通过周期均值叠加法将水文要素序列分离成若干个周期波并将周期波分别进行外延,然后进行线性叠加,获得预报结果,最后进行精度检验,该方法可以作为凤山水文站一种实用的中长期水文预报。

An introduction was made on the principle,method and calculating process of periodic mean superposition model.Long sequence annual maximum water level data of Fengshan Hydrological Station was used.The hydrological element sequence was separated into several periodic waves and the waves were extended by periodic mean superposition method,then linear superposition was conducted to obtain the prediction results before accuracy test was carried out finally.This method can be adopted as a practical means of medium and long-term hydrological forecast for Fengshan Hydrological Station.