武思江大江口水文站多元回归洪水预警方案分析

Analysis of multiple regression flood alarm scheme for Dajiangkou Hydrological Station on Wusi River

利用洪峰水位与面降雨量、降雨历时、起涨水位、同时水位建立多元回归方程是目前广西应用广泛的一种建立洪水预警方案的方法。武思江大江口水文站在测报一体化建设过程中将多元回归洪水预警方案收入该站的一站一册中,但在实际应用中洪水预警合格率不高。利用流量修正水位系列建立新方案,并对大江口站多元回归预警方案相关因素的合理性进行分析,从而达到总结经验,完善预警方案,提高洪水预警合格率的目的。

Establishing multiple regression equation with peak flood level,areal precipitation,rainfall duration,start rising level and simultaneous level is the method of setting up flood alarm scheme which is widely adopted in Guangxi at present.Multiple regression flood alarm scheme was written into the operation manual of Dajiangkou Hydrological Station on Wusi River during the construction of integrated measurement and prediction,but the qualified rate of flood alarm is not high.New scheme was established by correcting level series with flow.The rationality of relevant factors of multiple regression alarm scheme was analyzed for Dajiangkou Station,so as to Summarize experience,improve the alarm scheme and the alarm qualified rate.