涨率分析法在凤山水文站洪水预警预报中的应用

Application of inflation rate analysis in flood alarm and forecast of Fengshan Hydrological Station

凤山水文站是省级重点报汛的中小河流站,现有的预报方案有水文预报模型、多元回归法等。因地形地貌特殊,流域内有地下河干预,水文模型预报效果不太好。利用凤山水文站2017年"6.12"洪水数据,应用涨率分析法进行预警预报,效果较好,可以配合多元回归法作为今后凤山水文站预测、预警、预报工作的参考。

Fengshan Hydrological Station is one of the provincial key flood reporting stations on medium and small rivers.Its present forecast schemes include the hydrologic prediction model and multiple regression method.The forecasting effect of hydrologic model is not good due to special topography and interference of underground river.The data of flood occurred on June 12,2017 at Fengshan station was used to test forecasting by inflation rate analysis method.Good trial effects demonstrate inflation rate analysis method can be adopted to cooperate with multiple regression as reference of forecast and alarm at Fengshan station.