赣江流域径流模拟分析研究

Simulation Analysis of Runoff in the Ganjiang River Basin

为了分析赣江流域径流对1980-2013年以来土地利用变化的响应以及气候变化对其的影响,以外洲水文站控制的流域范围为研究对象,建立SWAT模型,对赣江流域径流进行模拟研究分析。研究结果表明:1)SWAT模型对赣江流域模拟精度较高,其中Ens均大于0.84,R^2均大于0.85,模拟效果较好;2)不同土地利用情境下模拟的赣江流域月径流略有变化;1980-2000年,月径流变化率最大为1.16%,最小为0.41%;2000-2015年,月径流变化率最大为0.17%,最小为0.01%;1980-2015年,月径流变化率最大为1.33%,最小为0.42%。总体来说,3个时期的变化率均在1.5%以内;3)降水量与气温对流域径流影响较大,其中降水量与径流呈正相关性,气温与径流呈负相关性,且在夏季,径流对温度敏感性最大。

In order to analyze the impact of runoff in the Ganjiang river basin on land use change since 1980-2015 and the impact of climate change on it,the basin area controlled by the foreign state hydrological station is the research object,and the SWAT model is established to simulate the runoff in the Ganjiang river basin.The results show:1)The SWAT model has high simulation accuracy for the Ganjiang river basin,in which Ens is greater than 0.84 and R^2 is greater than 0.85,the simulation effect is better.;2)The monthly runoff in the Ganjiang river basin simulated under different land use scenarios slightly changed.From 1980 to 2000,the monthly runoff change rate was 1.16%at the maximum and the minimum was 0.41%;From 2000 to 2015,the monthly runoff change rate is 0.17% and the minimum is 0.01%;From 1980 to 2015,the monthly runoff change rate was 1.33% and the minimum was 0.42%.Overall,the rate of change in all three periods is within 1.5%;3)Precipitation and temperature have a great influence on runoff in the basin.The precipitation is positively correlated with runoff,and the temperature is negatively correlated with runoff.In summer,runoff is the most sensitive to temperature.