基于人口“乡-城”动态迁移视角的农村人口预测——以黑龙江省为例

Rural Population Prediction from the Perspective of "Rural-Urban" Dynamic Migration——Take Heilongjiang Province as an Example

在我国城镇化的背景下,我国农村人口的动态迁移主要体现为农村青壮年劳动力从农村向城市的人口流动。基于人口"乡-城"动态迁移的视角,构建修正的Leslie农村人口预测模型,运用2010年第六次全国人口普查和黑龙江省2010年人口普查数据,对2011~2060年黑龙江省农村人口总量及结构进行预测和分析。从人口总量来看,黑龙江省农村人口呈持续平滑下降趋势,由2011年的1668万人减少至2060年的177万人,人口总量将减少89.39%,年均减少速度将达到4.39%;从人口结构来看,黑龙江省农村人口结构的变化大致可以分为老龄化加速期(2011~2036年)、人口结构稳定期(2037~2053年)和老龄化衰退期(2054~2060年)三个阶段,人口结构从动态上呈现出峰值年龄先增后减和青年人口大批减少的特征。随着城镇化的逐步实现,黑龙江省农村各年龄段人口数量将基本保持稳定。

The dynamic migration of rural population in China is mainly reflected in the flow of population dominated by migrant workers.From the perspective of "rural-urban" dynamic migration,this paper constructs a modified Leslie rural population prediction model.Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example,this paper uses the data of the sixth national population census in 2010 and the 2010 population census in Heilongjiang Province to predict and analyze the total number and structure of rural population in Heilongjiang Province from 2011 to 2060.Judging from the total population,rural population in Heilongjiang Province shows a continuous smooth decline,from 16.68 million in 2011 to 1.77 million in 2060.The total population will decrease by 89.39%,with an average annual decrease rate of 4.39%.From the perspective of population structure,the changes of rural population structure in Heilongjiang Province can be roughly divided into three stages:accelerated aging period (2011~2036),stable population structure period (2037~2053) and aging declining period (2054~2060).With the gradual realization of urbanization,the rural population of all ages in Heilongjiang Province will remain basically stable.