普京治下的俄罗斯经济:发展路径与趋势

Russian Economy under Putin:Development Path and Trends

普京执政的20年,对于俄罗斯国家重塑和大国地位的回归,具有重要意义。普京上任之初提出的维护国家统一和重振大国荣耀的目标已经实现;与之相比,俄罗斯的经济发展现状则与其国际地位和影响不相匹配。自2012年以来,俄罗斯经济陷入停滞,普京2008年提出的到2015-2020年俄罗斯GDP(按购买力平价计算)进入世界经济前五强的目标,亦成镜花水月。俄罗斯经济发展滞后,既受到全球化周期性因素结束、国际战略环境恶化等外部因素的冲击,也受到自身结构性矛盾的制约。从本体论的角度看,制约俄罗斯经济增长的深层次原因,在于其制造业的衰退、国有经济的低效率及固定资本投资的不振。普京在第四个总统任期,再次提出到2024年进入世界经济前五强的目标,其施政重点重新聚焦社会经济领域,着力解决增长和民生问题。在经济方面,实现多元化是俄罗斯的一个重要长期政策目标,其目的是使传统产业继续发展,同时使经济结构得到逐步调整,以保证经济长期持续增长。未来5年,预计俄罗斯政府在经济领域较少会有大刀阔斧的深入改革,但会通过产业、金融、财政、投资、出口政策的调整,为经济注入新的增长动力。如何将经济增长的潜力,变为现实的“突破式”发展,仍是俄罗斯面对的严峻挑战。

The 20 years under Putin is of great significance to the reconstruction of Russia and its return to the global stage.The goals of safeguarding Russia's national unity and revitalizing Russia's glory as a great power,put forward at the beginning of Putin 9s reign,have both been achieved.In comparison,nevertheless,Russia's current economy does not match its international status and influences.Since 2012,Russia's economy has been stagnant,and Putin's goal,put forward in 2008,of becoming one of the top five in the world economy by 2015-2020 remains off target.Russia's economy lags behind,which is not only influenced by such external factors as the end of cyclical factors of globalization and the deterioration of international strategic environment,but also restricted by its own structural contradictions.From the ontological point of view,the deep-seated reasons restricting Russia's economic growth lie in the decline of its manufacturing sector,the low efficiency of the state-owned economy and the sluggish fixed capital investment.In his fourth term,Putin once again proposed the goal of becoming one of the top five in the world economy by 2024.His administration again focused on social and economic fields,trying to solve the problems of growth and people's livelihood.Economically,achieving diversification is Russia's important long-term policy goal.His purpose is to enable traditional industries to continue developing,and at the same time to gradually adjust the economic structure,so as to ensure the long-term sustainable economic growth.In the next five years,it is expected that there won't be drastic and in-depth reforms in the economic field.Nevertheless,new dynamism will be injected into the economy through adjustments in industries,finance,public finance,investment and export policies.Actually,how to turn potentials of economic growth into real"breakthroughs"remains a serious challenge for Russia.