粤港澳大湾区制造业结构重心的空间演变及关联测算

Spatial Evolution and Correlation Calculation of the Manufacturing Structural Center of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

在《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》提出要优化制造业布局的要求下,选取粤港澳大湾区2007—2017年市域制造业增加值为主要研究指标,运用重心分析方法对大湾区制造业的空间轨迹进行分析,结果表明:大湾区地理几何中心在广州南沙区凤凰大道,制造业整体重心主要分布在南沙区和东莞市交界处,大湾区制造业东西方向的差距远大于南北之间的差距,而且2007—2017年制造业重心主要变动方向是在经度上由低向高移动,更进一步表明大湾区东西部之间制造业的发展差距在继续扩大。劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业在制造业重心的西边,技术密集型重心在制造业重心的东边,各类要素密集型产业布局方向各异;技术密集型重心与制造业重心的灰色关联度最强,技术密集型制造业增加值的差异决定了大湾区制造业空间发展差异。国家对粤港澳大湾区的区域发展战略规划、广东的“双转移”政策及制造业产业聚集特点是制造业重心移动的主要影响因子,但产业政策力量扭转不了产业趋向聚集趋势,而珠江东西两岸运输成本降低有利于制造业空间布局优化。

Under the requirement of optimizing the layout of manufacturing industry proposed in the planning outline for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,this paper selects the added value of manufacturing industry in the region of the Greater Bay Area from 2007 to 2017 as the main research index,and analyzes the spatial trajectory of manufacturing industry with the center-of-gravity method.The results shows:the geographical geometry center of the Greater Bay Area is at phoenix avenue,Nansha area,Guangzhou,while the manufacturing center is near the junctions between Nansha and Dongguan,the gap between the east and west regions of the Greater Bay Area is bigger than that between the south and north ones.From 2007 to 2017,manufacturing center is mainly moving eastwards,further expanding the gap between the east and west regions.Labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries lie to the west of the manufacturing center,while technology-intensive manufacturing industries lie to its east.The grey correlation between the technology-intensive center of gravity and the manufacturing center of gravity is the strongest.National plans and provincial policies are main factors influencing the movement of the barycenter of manufacture industries,but they can not change the gathering industrial trends,but bringing down transportation cost between the east and west of the Pearl River can optimize the spatial layouts manufacturing industries.