专项债兼顾扩容提效,助力基建托底稳增长——地方政府专项债2019年回顾与2020年展望

Capacity Expansion and Efficiency Improvement of Special Government Debt, Helping Infrastructure to Sustain Steady Growth——Review of Special Government Debt in 2019 and Outlook in 2020

作为积极财政政策的重要组成部分,地方政府专项债是支持基础设施补短板、稳投资的重要资金来源。12月14日中央经济工作会议强调积极的财政政策要大力提质增效,更加注重结构调整,坚决压缩一般性支出,做好重点领域保障。在经济下行压力加大、地方财政收支承压的大背景下,专项债尤其是新增专项债的规模有望持续快速扩容,种类也将日趋多样化并加快推进基建领域发行,且使用效率或进一步提高,助力积极财政政策提质增效。本文概述了2019年专项债的发行情况,详细分析了专项债对稳增长及防风险的重要作用,并对2020年专项债的发展趋势、发行规模以及对投资的拉动效应进行了预测和估算。

As an important part of the proactive fiscal policy,local government special debt is an important source of funds to support infrastructure,strengthen weak links and stabilize investment.The central economic work conference on December 142019 stressed the importance of enhancing the quality and efficiency of the proactive fiscal policy,paying more attention to structural adjustment,resolutely reducing general expenditures,and ensuring security in key areas.Under the background of increasing downward economic pressure and pressure on local government revenue and expenditure,the scale of special bonds,especially new special bonds,is expected to continue to expand rapidly,the types will be increasingly diversified and the issuance of infrastructure will be accelerated.In addition,the use efficiency may be further improved,so as to improve the quality and efficiency of proactive fiscal policies.This paper summarizes the issuance of special bonds in 2019,analyzes in detail the important role of special bonds in stabilizing growth and preventing risks,and forecasts and estimates the development trend,issuance scale and pulling effect of investment of special bonds in 2020.