基于SD模型的电力项目风险管理研究

Research on Power Project Risk Management Based on SD Model

为了提高电力项目风险因素管理能力,提出基于SD模型的电力项目风险因素管理方法。构建电力项目风险的多层次参数约束模型,确定电力项目风险管理的关联特征量,构建电力项目风险因素的特征关联分布模型,以电力项目资金影响因素、造价因素、环境因素以及材料设备影响因素为自变量,建立电力项目风险管理的模糊约束控制模型,采用SD模型进行电力项目风险管理的自适应寻优控制,结合统计分析和模糊预测方法,进行电力项目风险预测和优化管理。实验结果表明,采用该方法进行电力项目风险管理的准确性较高,可靠性较好,提高了电力项目风险的预测和控制能力。

In order to improve the management ability of power project risk factors,a modeling method of power project risk factors based on SD model is proposed.The multi-level parameter constraint model of power project risk is constructed,the related characteristic quantity of power project risk management is determined,and the characteristic correlation distribution model of power project risk factor is constructed.The fuzzy constraint control model of power project risk management is established with the influencing factors of power project capital,cost,environment and material and equipment as independent variables.SD model is used for adaptive optimization control of power project risk management,and combined with statistical analysis and fuzzy prediction method,the risk prediction and optimal management of power project are carried out.The simulation results show that the method has high accuracy and reliability in power project risk management,and improves the prediction and control ability of power project risk.