颠覆性技术创新与产业发展的互动机理--基于供给侧和需求侧的双重视角

The Interaction Mechanism between Disruptive Technological Innovation and Industrial Development——From the Dual Perspective of Supply-side and Demand-side

基于供给侧和需求侧的双重视角对颠覆性技术创新与产业发展之间的互动机理进行研究。研究结果显示,颠覆性技术创新与新兴产业之间并不是一一对应关系,颠覆性技术创新不一定会产生新兴产业,新兴产业也不一定是由颠覆性技术创新引致的。从供给侧角度看,颠覆性技术创新驱动产业发展的传导路径为:技术选择→市场选择→市场建立→市场扩大→范式形成,最终催生新兴产业。从需求侧角度看,产业发展对颠覆性技术创新需求的传导路径为:描绘未来经济社会发展愿景→确定未来经济社会发展需求清单→选择产业内可预期的产品→确定未来产品的关键特性→提出支撑产品关键特性的技术,而现实突出问题导向和未来愿景需求导向是推动颠覆性技术创新的关键因素。

The paper analyses the interaction mechanism between disruptive technological innovation and industrial development from the dual perspective of supply-side and demand-side.The relationship between disruptive technological innovation and emerging industries is not one-to-one correspondence.Disruptive technological innovation does not necessarily produce new industries,and emerging industries are not necessarily caused by disruptive technological innovation.From the perspective of supply side,the transmission path of disruptive technological innovation driving industrial development is as follows:technology choice,market choice,market establishment,market expansion,paradigm formation,and eventually the emergence of new industries.From the perspective of demand side,the transmission path of industrial development to disruptive technological innovation demand is as follows:depicting the vision of future economic and social development,determining the list of future economic and social development needs,choosing predictable products in industry,determining the key characteristics of future products,and putting forward technologies that support the key characteristics of products.It needs to be emphasized that the realistic prominent problem orientation and future vision needs seeking guidance are key factors in promoting disruptive technological innovation.