LNG全运输系统运行可靠度计算方法

A calculation method for the operation reliability of LNG whole transportation system

为了降低LNG储运过程中的风险,保障LNG供应链安全高效运行,可靠性分析是一种有效的技术手段。将LNG接收站与LNG船运合并为LNG全运输系统,明确了LNG全运输系统可靠性内涵;针对LNG航运失效数据不足的问题,建立了基于全运输系统运行机理的可靠性仿真模型;建立LNG接收站系统故障树模型,并划分最小割集,对LNG全运输系统的可靠性开展定性和定量分析,识别出系统薄弱环节。通过实例应用,验证了LNG全运输系统运行可靠度计算方法的可行性,可为LNG接收站储存及其船运过程中的安全管理、设备维护等提供参考。

Reliability analysis is an effective technical means to reduce the risks in the process of LNG storage and transportation and ensure the safe and efficient operation of LNG supply chain.In this paper,LNG receiving terminal and LNG shipping were combined into an LNG whole transportation system,and the connotation of its reliability was clarified.Then,aiming at the problem of insufficient LNG shipping failure data,a reliability simulation model based on the operation mechanism of whole transportation system was established.Finally,the fault tree model for the system of LNG receiving terminal was established and the minimum cut sets were classified to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis on the reliability of LNG whole transportation system.And accordingly the weak links of the system were determined.Case application verifies the calculation method for the operation feasibility of LNG whole transportation system is feasible and can provide the reference for the safety management and equipment maintenance in the process of LNG shipping and storage at LNG receiving terminals.