山东省旅游外汇收入与入境旅游市场预测及关系研究

Research on the Forecast and Relationship between Tourism Foreign Exchange Income and Inbound Tourism Market in Shandong Province

通过灰色预测模型,研究并预测山东省2019—2023年旅游外汇收入和世界各地来山东省旅游的人次,并对山东省2019—2023年旅游外汇收入预测值与相关地区入境旅游人次预测值的关系进行灰色关联度分析。结果发现:山东省旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人次在总体上呈现逐年上升的趋势,且旅游外汇收入预测值与不同地区的入境旅游人次预测值呈现出不同的关联度。因此,山东省应在加强经济发展的同时加强旅游营销宣传,不断促进入境旅游的发展。

This paper,adopting grey prediction model,studies and forecasts the tourism foreign exchange income in Shandong Province in the next five years and the number of tourists from all over the world to Shandong Province,and then analyzes the relationship between the two predicted values by grey correlation analysis.The study shows that the tourism foreign exchange income and the number of inbound tourists in Shandong Province are generally increasing year by year,and the two predicted values show different correlation degrees.Therefore,Shandong Province should strengthen tourism marketing while strengthening economic development and promote the development of inbound tourism.