中国新能源汽车动力电池报废量预测与对策建议——基于蒙特卡洛模拟的测算

Forecast and countermeasures of China’s new energy vehicle power battery scrap quantity:estimation based on Monte Carlo simulation

尽管新能源汽车表现出节油、低排放的优点,但其动力电池中包含的重金属和电解液等材料对环境的潜在风险不容忽视。估算动力电池报废量是对新能源汽车进行可持续管理的基础。在对新能源汽车分类的基础上,本文综合考虑新能源汽车电池生命周期、消费者行为、技术进步、梯次利用等因素,使用蒙特卡洛模拟对未来新能源汽车动力电池报废量进行了估算。结果表明,随着新能源汽车销量的增加和动力电池逐步达到使用寿命,动力电池报废量将快速增加,预计2025年动力电池报废量会达到150万组、131万吨。技术进步导致电池寿命延长,以及动力电池梯次利用将会减缓报废动力电池的产生速度。

Although new energy vehicles are characterized by fuel economy and low emissions,the potential risks of power battery including environmentally hazardous materials such as heavy metals and electrolytes cannot be ignored. Estimating the amount of power battery scrap is the basis for the sustainable management of new energy vehicles. Based on the classification of new energy vehicles, this paper comprehensively considers the life cycle of new energy vehicles, consumer behavior,technological progress,gradient utilization and other factors,and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the future battery scrap quantity of new energy vehicles. The results show that with the increase in sales of new energy vehicles and the achievement of power battery service life,the amount of battery scrap will increase rapidly. By 2025,the amount of power battery scrap will reach 1. 50 million units and 1. 31 million tons. Technological advances can lead to extended battery life,and the gradient utilization will slow down the production of scrapped power batteries.