摘要
The last lap of a decade-long race We expect China to set a growth target of around 6%for 2020.The recent Politburo meeting confirmed that the government is unlikely to drop the target of doubling 2010 GDP by 2020,a year before the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party.This requires minimum growth of 6.1-6.2%in 2019-20,according to our and official calculations.While GDP growth rates up to 2018 are likely to be revised based on the latest economic census,we believe the upward data revisions will be marginal and insufficient to meaningfully lower the 2020 growth target.
