“一带一路”背景下中国与东盟双边贸易对全球碳排放的影响

The Effect of China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade on Global Carbon Emissions:A Perspective of"the Belt and Road"

基于Eora数据库和投入产出模型,假设中国与东盟双边贸易额从正常状态到降低为零时,在满足双方等量最终需求的前提下,测算了中国与东盟双边贸易对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,2000—2015年双边贸易累计降低全球碳排放约4.7亿吨,占全球碳排放增量的5.19%。分部门来看,石油化工等制造业部门及电气水部门的双边贸易对碳排放降低的贡献最大。分地区来看,中国与新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚的双边贸易对碳排放降低的贡献最大。在“一带一路”建设不断推进的情况下,需要加强地区间低碳技术的互相扶持,才能够实现绿色发展。

Based on the Eora database and Input-Output model,assuming that the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN decreases from normal to zero,this paper estimates the net effect of China-ASEAN bilateral trade on global emissions.The simulation results indicate that bilateral trade reduced global carbon emissions by 470 million tons in 2000-2015,accounting for 5.19%of global carbon emissions growth.In terms of industry,bilateral trade in manufacturing sectors and electrical and water sectors contributed the most to the reduction of carbon emissions;in terms of sub-regions,bilateral trade between China and Singapore,Malaysia and Indonesia contributed the most to the reduction of carbon emissions.With the constant progress of the construction of The Belt and Road Initiative,it is necessary to strengthen mutual support of low carbon technologies among regions in order to achieve green development.