城市化、人口集聚与雾霾变化——基于门槛回归和空间分区的视角

Urbanization,Population Agglomeration and Haze Changes:Based on Threshold Regression and Spatial Partition

人口集聚作为城市化的重要动力,其可能通过时间上的集聚和空间上的分异来影响城市化与雾霾变化之间的关系。基于集聚理论,选取2003—2016年中国203个地级市的面板数据,以人口密度表示人口集聚并作为门槛变量,采用面板门槛模型实证检验城市化与雾霾变化的动态关系,并进一步对比分析其空间分异特征。研究表明:(1)城市化过程确实能显著地影响雾霾污染,但这种作用依赖于人口集聚的程度,即当人口密度值跨过门槛值后,城市化对雾霾污染呈现出边际递减现象。(2)通过东中西地带分区发现,中部和西部地区城市化对雾霾的影响均存在依赖于人口集聚的类似特征,而东部地区却没有出现类似的现象;同时通过南北分区发现,北方和南方城市化对雾霾的影响也存在依赖于人口集聚的类似特征。

As an important driving force of urbanization,population agglomeration may influence the relationship between urbanization and haze change through time agglomeration and spatial differentiation.Based on the agglomeration theory,this paper uses the panel data of 203 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016 to express the population agglomeration with the population density as the threshold variable,uses the panel threshold model to empirically test the dynamic relationship between urbanization and haze change,and further compares and analyses its spatial differentiation characteristics.The results show that:(1)The process of urbanization can significantly affect haze pollution,but this effect depends on the degree of population agglomeration,that is,when the population density value crosses the threshold,the haze pollution of urbanization shows a marginal decline phenomenon.(2)By dividing the eastern,central and western regions,it is found the impact of urbanization on haze in the central and western regions has similar characteristics depending on population concentration,while similar phenomena do not occur in the Eastern regions;At the same time,by dividing the northern and southern regions,the impact of urbanization on haze in the northern and southern regions has similar characteristics depending on population concentration too.