我国城乡居民收入增长、消费结构升级与体育产业发展耦合关系

Coupling Relationship between Income Growth, Consumption Structure Upgrading and Sports Industry Development of Urban and Rural Residents in New Era

运用文献资料、数理统计与向量自回归模型等方法,基于2006至2017年统计指标数据,对我国城乡居民收入增长、消费结构升级与体育产业发展的耦合关系进行分析。研究结果显示2006-2017年城乡居民人均可支配性收入显著增加,消费结构明显升级,体育产业发展迅速并且产业结构已发生显著变迁(X^2=522.9,P<0.01),体育服务业在体育产业发展过程中占据主导地位;城镇居民和乡村居民的收入增长、消费结构升级与体育产业发展均存在长期正向协整关系,VAR模型的拟合指数良好;脉冲响应与方差分解显示,城镇居民和乡村居民的收入增长、消费结构升级在体育产业发展过程中具有阶段性与相对性特征。最后提出了"夯实国民经济基础,创新居民增收途径;引导体育消费行为,培育健身消费习惯;优化体育产业结构,提高体育服务质量;健全体育法制体系,改善体育市场环境"等优化路径。

Based on literature study, mathematical statistics and VAR model, statistical data from 2006 to 2017, an analysis of the coupling relationship between income growth, consumption structure upgrading and sports industry development of urban and rural residents in the new era was made. Researches showed the the disposable income of urban and rural residents increased significantly, the consumption structure improved significantly, the sports industry developed rapidly and the industrial structure had undergone significant changes(X2=522.9, P<0.01) from 2006 to 2017. Sports service industry played a leading role in the development of sports industry. The income growth, the upgrading of the consumption structure and the development of the sports industry of urban and rural residents all had a long-term positive and coordinated relationship, and the fitting index of VAR model was good. Impulse response and variance decomposition showed that the income growth and consumption structure upgrading of urban residents and rural residents had different phases. Countermeasures for promoting sports industry involved consolidating national economy, creating more opportunities for income growth, guiding sports consumption, optimizing sports industry structure, improving sports service, bettering the legislation system and sports market environment.