中国地方政府债务支出效率研究——基于CRITIC赋权和产出滞后效应分析

On the Efficiency of Local Government Debt Expenditure in China——Based on CRITIC Method and Lag-effect

本文依据地方政府债务资金主要投资方向,建立地方政府债务支出效率评估指标,结合2012-2017年30个省份的面板统计数据,采用系统GMM方法测算地方政府债务产出滞后期,在此基础上,运用基本"投入-产出"分析方法评估我国地方政府债务支出效率。实证结果表明:地方政府债务产出滞后期为1年;我国接近一半省份地方政府债务支出效率呈下降趋势;地方政府债务支出效率的高低与地方本身经济发展水平没有必然联系。基于实证结果,提出以下建议:构建地方政府债务支出管理的动态评价调整机制;提高地方政府债务配置效率;合理制定新增债务限额标准。

On the basis of the investment orientation of local government debt, by setting up the efficient index of local government debt expenditure, and combining the panel statistics of 30 provinces from 2012 to 2017, meanwhile, making use of the system GMM method to calculate the lag period of local government debt output, this paper uses the basic "input-output" analysis method to evaluate the efficiency of local government debt expenditure in China.The empirical results show that:(1) the output lag period of local government debt is 1 year;(2) the efficiency of local government debt expenditure is declining in nearly half of China’s provinces;(3) the efficiency of local government debt expenditure is not necessarily related to the level of local governments’ own economic development. Accordingly, this paper puts forward the following suggestions which include building a dynamic evaluation and adjustment mechanism for the management of local government debt expenditure, improving the allocation efficiency of local government debt and formulating the new debt limit standards reasonably.