人口因素对湛江市商品住宅需求影响的实证分析

Dynamic Analyses on the Influence of Population Factors on Commodity Housing Demand in Zhanjiang City

依据1990~2018年湛江市各人口因素和商品住宅销量数据,建立向量自回归VAR模型,对湛江市人口因素与商品住宅销量影响进行实证分析。研究发现:人口出生率对商品住宅市场的发展长期效应不显著,城镇人口占比对商品房销量的脉冲影响总体呈“V”形态势,这一趋势将会持续;户均人数对商品住宅需求呈持续显著负向影响;第三产业人口占比对湛江商品住宅需求的影响在短期内波动,长期影响将逐渐增大。

Based on the data of population factors and commodity housing transactions in Zhanjiang from 1990 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of population factors on commercial housing by establishing a VAR model.The long-term effect of population birth rate on the development of commodity housing market is not significant.The impulse response of the urban and rural population ratios to the housing sales generally shows a‘V’shape,which will be a continuous trend.The average number of households has an impositive impact on the demand of commodity housing.The influence of the employed of the third industry has less activity and driving force.