中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

The Transformation Trend of Chinese Women’s First Marriage Pattern

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27岁之后的终身结婚期待率要高于1990年与2000年,29-35岁女性的预期单身寿命也较前30年低,较大年龄未婚女性结婚等待时间缩短。

Since the 1980s,the pattern of the first marriage among Chinese women has undergone signifi⁃cant changes.In this paper,using the population census data,the 1%population sampling survey data,the sampling survey of population changes data and the IPUMS data to calculate indicators such as:the women’s singulate mean age at first marriage,proportion of ever married,age-specific probabilities of first marriage,the percentage of marriage for single survivors and the single life expectancy,in exploring the changes of Chinese women’s first marriage pattern since the 1980s.Analysis reveals that the singulate mean age at first marriage for Chinese women has been rising in fluctuation for more than 30 years,and the singulate mean age at first marriage has reached 25.60 by 2017.Improvement in education attainment for women is a key factor for delayed marriages.The mean age at first marriage for women with higher education is signifi⁃cantly higher than women with no higher education.Through the standardization and decomposition of the mean age at first marriage of each education level,it can be seen that the influence of education on the mean age at first marriage for women increases with the passage of time.Marriage postponement is much prevalent among women aged 20-30.Although the proportion of ever married women continues to decline,the proportion of never married women is still very low.Among them,the postponement of marriage is the most obvious phenomenon among women with higher education,but their willingness to marry has not di⁃minished.Most women only postponed marriage,not refused to marry.Calculating the net nuptiality table shows that women’s age-specific probabilities of first marriage has declined from 1982 to 2010,especially in the 20-30 age group,the peak age of first marriage is delayed,age concentration in marriage has weak⁃ened and the percentage of marriage for single survivors is slowly declining.With the delay in women’s age at first marriage,the percentage of marriage for single survivors after 27 years old in 2010 is higher than that in 1990 and 2000.The single life expectancy at aged 29-35 is also lower than in the previous 30 years,and the waiting time before getting married becomes shorter for older unmarried women.