互联网消费金融对国内居民消费结构的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

The Impact of Internet Consumer Finance on the Consumption Structure of Domestic Residents: An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

国内互联网消费金融迅速兴起,影响着国内居民消费心理和消费方式,面对消费升级驱动国内经济增长的趋势,研究互联网消费金融的发展对国内消费结构的影响具有重要意义。笔者将居民基本生存性消费支出和居民发展享受性消费支出作为衡量居民消费结构的指标,运用2007—2017年的互联网消费金融放贷规模、居民收入、居民各类消费支出的数据,构建VAR模型实证分析互联网消费金融、居民收入、居民消费结构之间的关系。研究发现:与居民基本生存性消费支出相比,互联网消费金融的发展对居民发展享受性消费支出增长的贡献率更高;互联网消费金融有利于扩大居民的发展享受性消费支出,从而优化国内消费结构,推动经济增长。

The rapid rise of domestic Internet consumer finance affects the consumer psychology and consumption patterns of domestic residents.Facing the trend of consumption upgrading driving domestic economic growth,it is of great significance to study the impact of the development of Internet consumer finance on the domestic consumption structure.This paper takes residents' basic surviving consumer expenditure and residents' developmental consumption expenditure as indicators to measure the consumption structure of residents.Using the data of Internet consumer finance lending scale,household income and various consumption expenditures from 2007 to 2017,the VAR model is constructed.Analyze the relationship between Internet consumer finance,household income,and household consumption structure.The study finds that compared with the basic surviving consumer expenditures of the residents,the development of Internet consumer finance has a higher contribution rate to the growth of residents' enjoyment of consumption expenditures.Internet consumer finance is conducive to expanding residents' developmental consumption expenditures,thereby optimizing the domestic consumption structure and promoting economic growth.