中国对外水果贸易增长原因分析——基于三元边际的视角

Growth Reasons of China’s Fruit Trade:Based on the Perspective of Three Margins

采用H-K测度法对2002—2017年中国水果总体及下分鲜冷冻、加工水果进出口增长进行三元边际分解,以期为入世以来中国水果贸易变化提供基于增长路径的经验解释。研究表明:整体上,中国水果进出口均主要沿着数量主导的集约边际增长,但进口扩展边际有一定程度的上升。分阶段地,出口主要增长路径由扩展边际逐渐转向数量边际,而进口增长则由价格边际逐渐转向数量和扩展边际共同推动;分类别地,由于鲜冷冻和加工水果的主要贸易市场存在特征差异,其进出口边际结构也有所不同;分国家地,价格边际是对美国、日本、俄罗斯和越南水果出口增长的主要路径,泰国市场则由数量边际主导。而对各进口主要贸易国水果进口的增长均由数量边际主导。最后,基于研究结论,针对性地提出相关政策建议。

The H-K decomposition method of three margins is applied to decompose the import and export of the whole fruit and sub-fresh frozen and processed fruit from 2002 to 2017 to provide a empirical explanation based on the growth path for the changes of china’s fruit trade.The research shows that:on the whole,china’s fruit import and export both grow along the quantitative margin,but the extensive margin of import has a certain degree of growth;In stages,the main growth path of export is gradually shifted from the extensive margin to the quantitative margin while the growth of import is gradually shifted from the price margin to the quantitative and extensive margins;Due to the characteristic differences in the markets of fresh frozen and processed fruit,the marginal structures of import and export are also different in categories;The price margin is the main path for the growth of China’s fruit export to the United States,Japan,Russia and Vietnam while the market in Thailand is dominated by the quantitative margin.The growth of fruit import from the major importing countries are all dominated by the quantitative margin.Finally,based on the research conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.