国际油价2019年回顾及2020年展望

2019 Review and 2020 Prospect of International Oil Price

2019年中美贸易磋商进程曲折反复、全球宏观经济增长动能减弱,导致石油市场需求增速放缓、供应相对过剩,国际油价均值同比下跌。预计2020年石油需求增速略低于历史平均水平,非OPEC供应维持中高速增长,维也纳联盟坚持贯彻减产协议,使全球油市在面对潜在供应过剩压力和IMO船用燃料油新规冲击的同时,开启结构性再平衡之路。在中美贸易谈判继续艰难推进、全球经济稳中趋弱、美伊冲突未导致大规模石油供应中断的情况下,预计2020年布伦特均价较大概率为60~70美元/桶。

The average international oil price in 2019 dropped from last year,mainly due to the tortuous Sino-US trade negotiation and the weakening global macro-economic growth momentum,which led to oil demand growth slowdown and even relative oversupply.Oil demand growth in 2020 is expected to be slightly lower than historic average level,with non-OPEC supply maintaining medium-high growth,and Vienna Alliance sticking to productioncut agreement,which will usher in a new structural rebalance for global oil market facing pressures of potential oversupply and new IMO regulations.Brent crude price is likely to be anywhere between$60 to$70 per barrel in 2020,if Sino-US trade negotiation continues to move ahead with difficulties,global economy keeps stable with only a slight decline,and US-Iran conflict does not cause major oil supply disruptions.