论制度决定国家兴衰存亡

The Social System Determines the Rise and Fall of the Country

一个国家的兴衰存亡是由什么决定的?虽然多因素决定论似乎比单因素决定论更有道理,但若最后不能指出多因素中的决定因素是什么,那就还是无济于事。探究这里的决定因素,需先弄清国家兴衰存亡的所指与指标,其后便可较为便利地发现:制度是决定因素。不过这个结论不能以新制度经济学的制度性解释为前提或基础,因为它不仅只从经济维度界定和分析国家兴衰,经济维度的说理也不透彻。制度决定论主要依据判定国家兴盛的五项指标,即政治是否清廉明智、经济是否长期发展、民生是否安居乐业、文化是否繁荣昌盛、军队是否先进强大,最终得出社会制度决定国家兴衰存亡的结论。政治制度最为重要,其反腐败制度可谓国家兴衰存亡的前提性制度,其仁政制度可谓国家兴衰存亡的基础性制度。

What causes the rise and fall of a country?Although multi-factor determinism seems to make more sense than single-factor determinism,it will not help if the final determinant of multi-factor is not pointed out.To explore the determinants here,we must first understand the indicators and indicators of the country's rise and fall,and then it can be more convenient to find that the system is the determinant.However,this conclusion cannot be based on the premise or basis of the institutional interpretation of the new institutional economics,because it not only defines and analyzes the rise and fall of the country from the economic dimension only,but also the theory of the economic dimension is not thorough.The author's interpretation from the system deterministic dimension is different.It is based on the five indicators that determine the prosperity of the country,namely whether politics is clean and wise,whether the economy is developing for a long time,whether the people's livelihood is peaceful,whether the culture is prosperous,whether the army is advanced and strong Through analysis and demonstration in many causal relationships with the social system,the conclusion is drawn that the social system determines the rise and fall of the country.Among them,the political system is the most important.Its anti-corruption system can be described as the prerequisite system of the country's rise and fall,and its benevolent system can be described as the basic system of the country's rise and fall.