安徽省生态环境承载力评价及其影响因素耦合度分析

Assessment of Ecological Environment Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province and Analysis on Coupling Degree of Its Influencing Factors

【目的/意义】通过对安徽省生态环境承载力的评价和影响因素耦合度协调分析,揭示出安徽省生态环境承载力特征,以期为提升安徽省生态环境承载力提供一定的建议依据,有利于更好地推进安徽省生态文明建设。【方法/过程】根据生态环境承载力内涵与特征,以安徽省为研究对象,基于DPSIR模型选取压力、驱动力、状态、影响和响应5个方面指标构建安徽省生态环境承载力评价指标体系,运用加权-TOPSIS模型和耦合协调度模型对安徽省生态环境承载力时序演化和影响因素耦合度进行研究。【结果/结论】结果表明:在2008-2017年间,总体上安徽省生态环境承载力综合贴进度T j由2008年的0.2738上升到2017年的0.6628,呈波动上升趋势,综合承载力等级实现了由较差等级到良好等级的根本转变;从子系统上看,五大子系统贴近度均呈不同幅度的上升趋势,其中压力子系统贴近度由2008年的0.3414增长到2014年的0.6377后保持高位平稳趋势,生态建设压力驱小。在样本期内,安徽省生态环境-经济社会耦合协调发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,尤其在2013年后增速明显,实现了由勉强协调到良好协调的根本转变。

【Objective/Meaning】Through the evaluation of the ecological environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province and the coordinated analysis of the coupling degree of influencing factors,the characteristics of the ecological environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province were revealed,in order to provide some suggestions for the improvement of the ecological environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province,which was conducive to promoting the ecological civilization construction of Anhui Province.【Methods/Procedures】According to the connotation and characteristics of ecological environment carrying capacity,by taking Anhui Province as the research object,and based on the DPSIR model,pressure,driving force,state,impact and response were selected to construct the evaluation index system of ecological environment carrying capacity in Anhui Province.Then,the weighted TOPSIS model and the coupling coordination degree model were used to study the temporal evolution of ecological environment carrying capacity and the coupling degree of influencing factors in Anhui Province.【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that during 2008-2017,the overall T j of ecological environment carrying capacity in Anhui Province has increased from 0.2738 in 2008 to 0.6628 in 2017,showing a fluctuating trend,and the grade of comprehensive carrying capacity has realized a fundamental change from poor grade to good grade.From the perspective of subsystems,the close degreee of the five subsystems showed an upward trend of different ranges,among which the pressure subsystem increased from 0.3414 in 2008 to 0.6377 in 2014,and maintained a high and stable trend,with low pressure driving in ecological construction.During the sample period,the coordinated development of ecological environment and economy and society in Anhui Province showed an overall upward trend,especially after 2013,when the growth rate was obvious and the fundamental change from barely coordinated to well-coordinated was realized.