我国化石能源消费多因素分析——基于新能源替代与能源技术进步视角

Multi-factors Analysis of China’s Fossil Energy Consumption——Based on New Energy Substitution and Energy Technology Progress

社会进步和经济发展离不开能源投入,但是化石能源的过度消费会造成严重的污染。为了缓解环境污染和能源短缺的问题,我国新能源替代步伐逐渐加快。本文基于新能源替代与能源技术进步视角对化石能源消费进行了多因素分析。首先,基于总产出对化石能源与新能源弹性,计算了两类能源对经济增长的贡献率,得到了两类能源的技术进步度量。然后,选取了1995-2016年间我国实际GDP、能源技术进步、新能源消费、环境规制、城镇化等变量作为影响化石能源消费的因素,时间序列回归结果显示新能源对化石能源消费还未形成有效的抑制作用,但是新能源与两类能源技术进步的交叉项对化石能源消费的控制作用显著。最后,基于各个解释变量的历史变化规律进行情景模拟,发现在经济转向高质量增长和能源技术不断进步的背景下,我国化石能源消费峰值将在短期中出现。

Energy is an important material basis for social progress and economic growth,but the excessive consumption of fossil energy will bring serious pollution.In order to alleviate the problem of environmental pollution and energy shortage,the development of new energy in China has gradually accelerated.First of all,based on the elasticity of economic development to fossil and new energy,the contribution rates of the two types of energy to economic were calculated,and the technological progress measures of the two types of energy were obtained.Secondly,the actual GDP,energy technology,new energy consumption,environmental regulation in the 1995-2016 were selected as factors to analysis the fossil energy consumption trend,the results show that the direct inhibitory effect of new energy on fossil energy consumption was not significant,but the cross term of new energy consumption and the progress of two kinds of energy technologies had significant effect on the control of fossil energy consumption.Finally,the scenario simulation were carried out based on the historical change rate of each variable.It was found that The peak of fossil energy consumption will appear in the short term under the background of high quality economic growth and the continuous progress of energy technology.