中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应

The Reconstruction Effect of Trade Friction on China’s Participation in Regional Value Chain

基于贸易增加值视角,以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)为对象,研究中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应。首先运用沃姆斯利(Walmsley)动态递归方法更新全球贸易分析模型的基准数据库,然后运用全球贸易分析模型与库普曼(Koopman)等的贸易增加值分解模型的链接方法,分解中美加征关税对全球价值链和区域价值链的影响,从区域价值链视角出发评估贸易摩擦的经济效应。结果发现:从国家层面看,贸易摩擦对中国参与全球价值链负面影响颇为严重,却深化了中国参与区域价值链的程度,主要归因于直接贸易规模性转移与间接产业分工格局调整两个方面;从产业层面看,贸易摩擦对中国不同行业部门参与区域价值链的影响存在较强的异质性。总体而言,对不同行业的区域价值链均呈现促进效应,但电子产业增长相对较高,其次是汽车业、纺织业,原因在于不同行业参与全球价值链的程度截然不同。

The authors focuse on the perspective of trade value-added and takes the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)as the research object to explore the reconstruction effect of trade friction on China's participation in regional value chains.In order to deeply deconstruct the reconstruction effect of trade friction on China's participation in regional value chains,the authors firstly use the Walmsley dynamic recursive method to update the basic database of the Global Trade Analysis Project,and then use the linkage method of global trade analysis Project and trade value-added decomposing method by Koopman et.al,which can decompose the impact of tariffs imposed by China and USA on global value chains and regional value chains,and assess the economic effects of trade friction from the perspective of regional value chains.There are two main findings:(1)In the national level,trade friction has a serious negative impact on China's participation in global value chains,but it has deepened China's participation in regional value chains.There are two main reasons:the direct transfer of trade and the indirect adjustment the industry.(2)In the industry level,trade friction has a strong heterogeneity on the influence of different industry sectors in China on regional value chains.In general,trade friction has a positive effect on regional value chains in different industries,but the growth of the electronics industry is relatively high,followed by the automotive industry and the textile industry.The reason is that the different industries that participates in the global value chain are heterogeneous.