基于分位数回归的户籍制度改革对去库存的影响研究

Research on Effects of Household Registration System Reform on Destocking:a Perspective Based on Quantile Regression

户籍制度改革使得人口在城市层面的空间分布格局发生变化,对各个城市房地产去库存的影响备受关注。选取2005-2016年我国房地产市场83个代表性城市的相关变量数据,使用分位数回归模型探索户籍制度改革对各类城市房地产去库存影响的异质性特征。研究结果表明,户籍制度改革带来的人口流动与分布能够显著地促进高房价城市房地产销售,对低房价城市特别是三四线城市去库存影响微弱。这启示三四线城市的地方政府应以产业的转型升级、公共资源和公共服务的优化为中间措施实现户籍制度改革平衡房地产市场的供需结构。

The reform of household registration system has changed the spatial distribution pattern of population at the city level.Thus,the impact of such changes on destocking of real state have attracted much attention.In this paper,the data of83 representative cities in China’s real estate market from the year of 2005 to 2016 was selected to explore the heterogeneity of the impacts of household registration system reform on the destocking of real estate by quantile regression model.The results show that the population flow and distribution change brought by the reform of household registration system can significantly promote the sale of real estate in high-priced cities,and has a weak impact on low-priced cities,especially third-tier cities.The result reminds the government in third-tier cities to balance the supply and demand structure of the real estate market by certain industries’transformation and upgrading,public resources and public services’optimization.