苹果绵蚜在西藏的风险性分析

Risk analysis of Eriosoma lanigerum in Tibet

在首次西藏林业有害生物普查的基础上,结合公开发表的文献资料,对苹果绵蚜在西藏地区的风险性进行定性和定量分析。分析指标包括苹果绵蚜的分布范围、潜在危害性、寄主植物的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性以及风险管理难度等5个方面。结果表明,苹果绵蚜在西藏的风险性值R=1.79,属中度危险有害生物。据此提出2种风险管理备选方案,并进行了影响评价,确定最终管理方案。

Qualitative and quantitative analysis was carried out on the risk of Eriosoma lanigerum from the follow aspects on basis of the first Tibet census and published literature:distribution of the pest,potential harmfulness,economic importance of host plants,possibility of the pest transmisson and the difficulty of management.The risk analysis showed that Eriosoma lanigerum is belonging to medium risk pest in Tibet with a risk value R=1.79.Based on this result two strategies were evaluated and proposed for better risk management.