中国省域工业资本存量核算及分析:1978—2017年

Estimation of China’s Industrial Capital Stock at Provincial Level:1978—2017

准确核算工业资本存量是科学判断投资效率的基础,进而有利于正确认识产业政策的有效性和增长模式的可持续性。基于OECD资本核算手册,遵循资本存量核算逻辑,利用官方统计数据,运用永续盘存法(PIM)核算1978—2017年中国省域工业资本存量,并分析其时空演变的特征,结果显示:中国省域工业资本存量整体上保持增长态势,1978—2002年增长较慢,2003年以后增速显著加快;工业资本存量规模和增速均呈现由东到西依次递减的区域不平衡性,但近年来东部增速放缓,中部超过东部,西部保持较快增速;中国工业资本产出比在1978—2002年呈下降趋势,在2003—2017年呈递增态势。中国工业资本存量的区域不平衡性与工业化进程的区域差异相对应,应通过结构调整、布局优化、体制改革和扩大开放等路径加快中西部地区新型工业化进程。

Accurately estimating industrial capital stock is the basis of scientifically analyzing investment efficiency,and is further conducive to properly understanding the validity of industrial policy and the sustainability of growth model.Based on the Measuring Capital OECD Manual,this paper theoretically analyzes the logic of measuring capital stock,uses official statistical data,employs the Perpetual Inventory Method(PIM)to measure China's industrial capital stock at provincial level from 1978 to 2017,and then analyzes its temporal and spatial characteristics.The results show that since the reform and opening up,China's inter-provincial industrial capital stock has experienced a rising tide,relatively growing slowly during 1978-2002,obviously accelerated since 2003,that both the industrial capital stock scale and its growth speed show descending in turn from the east to the west and regional imbalance but in recent years,its growth rate in the east becomes slowing,its speed in the middle region surpassed the east,the west keeps rapidly growing,that China’s industrial capital output ratio demonstrates the descending trend during 1978-2002,but steadily increases during 2003-2017.The regional imbalance of China industrial capital stock is corresponding to the regional difference in industrial process,the new-style industrialization process in the middle region and in the west region should be accelerated by the paths such as structure adjustment,layout optimization,system reform,openness enlargement and so on.