农民工流向选择和区域流动变化研究——基于河南省农民工流向的经验研究

Research on Migrant Workers’ Flow Choice and Regional Flow Changes

本文对农民工流向选择和区域流动人口规模变化进行了研究,发现农民工流动到东部沿海地区的比例呈现出减少或者是增幅下降的趋势,之所以呈现出农民工流动到东部沿海地区规模减少或者是回流规模扩大的原因是东部沿海地区的生存成本增加进而使得中西部地区与东部沿海地区的收支剩余差距缩小,使得越来越多的农民工在比较中西部与东部地区收支剩余差异的情况下选择省内就业或在周边省份就业。

This paper studies the choice of rural labor flow and the change of regional migrant population scale.It is found that the proportion of rural labor flow to the eastern coastal areas is decreasing or declining in increasing rate.The reason why the scale of migrant workers flow to the eastern coastal areas is decreasing or the increasing scale of labor reflow is the increasing living cost in the eastern coastal areas.In the case of a small increase survival cost in the central and western regions,the central and western regions surplus is gradually close to eastern region surplus,which in turn makes more and more migrant workers to reflow that choose employment in the province or in the surrounding provinces,in the context of comparing the surplus differences between the western and western regions.