制度质量、对外援助和受援国经济增长

Institutional Quality,Foreign Aid and Economic Growth of Recipient Countries

对外援助是中国推动"一带一路"建设,加强与沿线国家双边合作的重要举措之一。文章采用2000~2014年中国对外援助的面板数据,在考虑援助的内生性及使用全球治理指数的基础上,实证研究了中国对外援助和制度质量对受援国经济增长的影响。实证研究结果表明:中国对外援助尤其是基础设施援助能够有效促进受援国的经济增长;良好的制度建设是受援国经济增长的重要保障;分样本回归显示,受援国制度质量能够显著影响中国对外援助尤其是经济基础设施援助的经济增长效应,这一效应在亚欧受援国表现明显;拓展分析发现中国对外援助和OECD国家对外援助呈现出"1+1>2"的效果。为提升中国对外援助的效果和质量,中国需要改进对外援助结构,加强对援助项目实施过程的监督,减少受援国制度风险的影响。

Foreign aid is one of the most significant measures for China to promote the construction of the " Belt and Road Initiative" and strengthen bilateral cooperation with countries along the route. Based on the panel data of China’ s foreign aid from 2000 to2014,this paper empirically studies the impact of China’s foreign aid and institutional quality on the economic growth of recipient countries,considering the endogenous nature of aid and the application of the global governance index. The results of empirical research show that:( 1) China’s foreign aid,especially infrastructure assistance can effectively promote the economic growth of recipient countries;( 2) a good constructed system is an important guarantee for recipient countries’ economic growth;( 3) sample regression shows that the quality of the recipient country’s political system can significantly influence the performance of China’s foreign aid,especially economic infrastructure assistance,on economic development of recipient countries. And this effect is much more evident in the Asian and European recipient countries;( 4) Further analysis indicates that China’ s foreign aid and OECD countries’ foreign aid together form the effect of " 1 + 1 > 2",bringing better outcomes to recipient countries than each kind of aid alone does. In order to improve the effectiveness and quality of China’s foreign aid,China needs to improve its foreign aid structure,strengthen supervision over the implementation of aid projects,and reduce the impact of institutional risks in recipient countries.