2014-2018年重庆市九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件时空特征分析

Spatial-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Public Health Emergencies of Infectious Diseases in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing City During 2014-2018

目的了解2014-2018年重庆市九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件的流行病学特征,为九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件的防控提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学和时空自相关统计量对重庆市九龙坡区2014-2018年报告的传染病突发公共卫生事件进行分析,总结流行病学特征。结果2014-2018年九龙坡区累计报告传染病突发公共卫生事件71起,以未分级为主(73.24%);发生场所全部为中小学校和托幼机构;传播途径以呼吸道传播为主(54.93%);3-6月、10-12月季节性高发;事件的传染病病种主要为流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其它感染性腹泻病(诺如病毒感染)、手足口病和水痘。九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件数经时间序列arima模型拟合,ma1=-0.8627(95%CI:[-1.030,-0.695]),sar1=0.430(95%CI:[0.212,0.648]),有统计学意义。空间自相关分析显示,九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件全局Moran’s I指数0.334(P<0.05),其中谢家湾街道(局部Moran’s I 1.598,P<0.01)、石坪桥街道(局部Moran’s I 1.238,P<0.01)和石桥铺街道(moran.plot影响显著性测量cov.r=1.382,影响显著)存在显著的高-高空间聚集模式。结论重庆市九龙坡区传染病突发公共卫生事件以中小学校和托幼机构为主要场所,发生水平呈现长期上升趋势、双峰形态的季节性高发以及显著的高发聚集特征。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing City from 2014 to 2018 in order to provide scientific evidence for prevention and control of public health emergencies in Jiulongpo District.Methods Descriptive statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the data about public health emergencies of infectious diseases reported in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing City in 2014-2018.Results In 2014-2018,a total of71 public health emergencies was reported,and 73.24% of those emergencies were in ungraded level.These emergencies all took place in primary and secondary schools and child care institutions,and 54.93% of them had a transmission route of respiratory tract.Public health emergencies mainly occurred during two periods,including March to June and October to December.Five types of infectious diseases contributed to public health emergencies in Jiulongpo district,including influenza,mumps,other infectious diarrhea(like norovirus infection),hand-foot-mouth disease and chickenpox.Public health emergencies data were fitted by time series Arima model with statistically significant coefficients of ma1=-0.8627(95%CI:[-1.030,-0.695])and sar1=0.430(95%CI:[0.212,0.648]),respectively.Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that there was spatial clustering of public health emergencies in Jiulongpo District(Moran’s I index 0.334,P<0.05);Xiejiawan Street(local Moran’s I 1.598,P<0.01),Shipingqiao Street(local Moran’s I 1.238,P<0.01)and Shiqiaopu Street(significant influence of cov.r=1.382 in Moran scatterplot)showed a significant high-high spatial clustering pattern.Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies is generally on the rise,which mainly occurred at primary and secondary schools and child care institutions in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing city.Those public health emergencies are characterize by bimodal-like seasonal high incidence and significant spatial clustering.