公司多元化与分析师预测准确性

Diversification and Analyst’s Forecast Accuracy

基于外部利益相关者角度,以中国A股公司2007—2018年数据为样本,实证检验公司多元化经营对分析师盈余预测的影响效应及作用路径。结果显示:行业多元化经营越高,分析师盈余预测误差和分歧度越小;行业非相关性越高、国际化程度越高,多元化经营对分析师盈余预测的影响越大。进一步检验发现,多元化投资组合的风险分散效应可以降低公司盈余波动性和现金流预测误差,降低分析师预测复杂度和提高分析师预测准确性。本研究拓展了多元化经营的研究视角和作用机制,丰富了多元化战略及类型对分析师的影响研究,为多元化战略实施和分析师预测行为提供更多理论依据。

Based on the firm-year sample of China A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2015,this paper empirically examines the effect of corporate diversification on analysts’earnings forecast and reveal the influence mechanism.The results show that diversification significantly reduces analysts’forecast error and dispersion,and the more unrelated of the industry for diversification,the more international diversification of firms,the more significant impact of industry diversification on the analysts’forecast accuracy.Further,it is found that the risk dispersion effect generated by diversified portfolios can reduce the company’s earnings volatility and cash flow forecasting errors,and ultimately lead to analysts’earnings prediction errors and differences.This research can expand the research perspective and mechanism of diversification and enrich the research on different types of diversification strategies,more theoretical guidance for analysts’forecasting and implementation of corporate diversification strategy.