住房价格对我国人口流动的影响

The Impact of Housing Price on Population Mobility in China

本文旨在考察住房价格对人口流动的综合作用机制。在宏观层面,基于2005—2016年我国286个地级市的面板数据进行实证分析发现,不管是住房价格还是房价收入比的上升均显著地抑制了人口的净流入,其抑制作用表现为从东部到西部逐渐减弱;在微观层面,房价上涨对不同收入水平的流动人口居留意愿的影响表现为"U"形,房价对收入较低群体和收入较高群体居留意愿的负向抑制作用更小。鉴于此,本文分区域为各地吸引人口流入、实现"人""居"均衡发展乃至最终实现经济可持续发展提出相应的政策建议。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the housing prices on the combinationmechanism of population flow.At the macro level,based on China’s 286 cities in 2005—2016 panel data to carry on the empirical analysis found that whether the housing price,or the rise of housing price to income ratio are significantly inhibits the net inflows of population,its inhibition performance is weakened gradually from the east to the west.At the micro level,the impact of housing price rise on residence intention of floating population at different income levels is"U"shaped,and the negative inhibiting effect of housingprice on residence intention of lower income group and higher income group is smaller.In view of this,this paper puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions for various regions to attract population inflow,realize the balanced development of"people"and"residence"and finally realize the sustainable economic development.