京沪妇女保健体系达到国际一流的可行性

The Feasibility Analysis on Achieving the Goal of Being Top-level for Maternal Health Care in Beijing and Shanghai

目的:分析北京、上海妇女保健体系达到国际一流的可行性。方法:运用时间序列分析法,预测在配套措施落实到位后,自然演变、仅业务部门重视、仅政府重视、政府和业务部门均重视4种情境下京沪妇保体系达到国际一流所需的时间。结果:自然演变下,京沪妇保体系需20-25年达到国际一流;仅业务部门重视,京、沪有望经过10年、6年达到国际一流;仅政府重视,京、沪有望经过8年、4年达到国际一流;政府和业务部门均重视,京、沪有望经过5年、3年达到国际一流。结论:京沪妇保体系达到国际一流是可行的,上海达成的时间要早于北京;政府和业务部门均重视下能够形成多方协同推进工作开展的局面,效果最好,但实施难度亦最大。

Objective To analyze the feasibility to achieve the goal of top-levelfor maternal health care in Beijing and Shanghai.Methods The time series modeling was used to predict how long the maternal health care in Beijing and Shanghai could be top-level in four different conditions,including natural trend(condition 1),with the emphasis of the professional departments(condition 2),with the emphasis of the government(condition 3),and with the emphasis of both the government and the professional departments(condition 4).Results In condition I,the maternal health care in Shanghai and Beijing are expected to be top-level in about 20 to 25 years.In condition 2,Beijing and Shanghai are expected in 10 years and 6years,respectively.In condition 3,Beijing and Shanghai are expected in8years and 4years,respectively.In condition 4,Beijing and Shanghai are expected in 5years and 3years,respectively.Conclusion It is feasible to achieve the goal of being top-level for maternal health care in both Beijing and Shanghai,and Shanghai will take fewer years than Beijing in general.With the involved from the government and the professional departments,the mechanism for the interagency cooperation could be well established which could lead to the best outcomes,while all the departments should make the greatest during the process.