中国省域家庭债务变动对劳动力流动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Household Debt Changes on Labor Mobility in Provincial Regions of China

从微观家庭的债务视角出发,以中国31个省份为研究对象,探讨了家庭债务对劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明:家庭债务对劳动力流动有显著的负面影响,且随着分位数水平的提高,二者呈显著的"倒U型"关系;家庭债务对劳动力流动的影响也存在明显的区域差异,东部和中部地区的家庭债务对劳动力流动的制约效果要远高于西部地区,迁出地的家庭债务对劳动力流动的影响程度相较于迁入地要更大、更显著。此外,城镇化率、产业结构、基础设施状况和对外开放度会对劳动力流动产生正效应,而财政分权则会对劳动力流动产生负效应。因此,在降低劳动力流动成本与风险的同时,完善金融监管体系,对不同地域的家庭提供差异化的信贷政策,都将有助于引导劳动力在地域间合理流动。

From the perspective of micro-household debt,taking the 31 provinces(municipalities and regions)of China as the research objects,this paper explores the impact of household debt on labor mobility.The results show that household debt has a significant negative impact on labor mobility,and with the improvement of the quantile level,there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between them.At the same time,there are obvious regional differences in the impact of house hold debt on labor mobility:the restrictive effect of household debt on labor mobility in eastern and central regions is much higher than that in western regions;compared with the labor inflow regions,the impact of household debt on labor mobility is greater and more significant in the labor outflow regions.In addition,such factors as urbanization rate,industrial structure,infrastructure level and opening-up degree have positive effect on labor mobility,while fiscal decentralization has negative effect on labor mobility.Therefore,while reducing the costs and risks of labor mobility,to improve the financial supervision system and to provide different credit policies to households at different regions will be conductive to guiding the rational labor mobility between the regions.