中国城乡居民养老金缓解老年贫困的效应分析——基于绝对贫困与相对贫困双重视角

An Analysis of the Effect of Pension for Urban and Rural Residents on Alleviating Old Age Poverty in China: From the Perspective of Absolute Poverty and Relative Poverty

文章基于北京大学中国社会科学调查中心“中国家庭动态追踪调查”(CFPS)2014年和2016年两期数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)消除了多元回归分析的选择偏误,实证分析了领取居民养老金对老年贫困程度的影响。本文以四种贫困衡量指标为基准展开研究,结果表明:在两项绝对贫困的指标下,领取养老金能够降低约2%的老年贫困发生率;而在两项相对贫困指标下,领取养老金对于老年贫困的影响较小,并且领取养老金不能减缓老年贫困的发生率,反而小幅度提升了贫困发生率。对此,文章提出了继续提升养老保险待遇水平,加快养老保险城乡统筹,完善高龄津贴制度,并增设动态相对贫困线等建议。

Based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)2014-2016 data,this paper adopts the propensity score matching method(PSM)to eliminate the selection bias of multiple regression analysis,and empirically analyzes the impact of residents receiving pension on the poverty level of the elderly.In this paper,four poverty measures are used as the benchmark to carry out the research.However,under the two relative poverty indicators,pension payment has a small impact on the elderly poverty,and pension payment cannot reduce the incidence of elderly poverty,but slightly increases the incidence of poverty.In this regard,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as continuing to improve the level of old-age insurance treatment,accelerating the urban-rural pooling of old-age insurance,improving the old age allowance system,promoting the implementation of the law on the protection of the rights and interests of the elderly and adding dynamic relative poverty line.