计及时间相关性的微能源网鲁棒规划方法

A robust planning method for micro energy grid considering spatiotemporal correlations of uncertainties

微能源网以能源的梯级利用为原则,可实现风、光等多种新能源的高比例消纳,满足区域内电、热、冷等多种能源需求。微能源网中存在新能源出力与冷、热、电负荷的多重不确定性。为增强系统规划结果的鲁棒性,常采用不确定集表述新能源出力与多种用能需求的不确定性,实现针对微能源网的鲁棒规划设计,往往使系统规划结果过于保守,降低系统经济性。为克服以上问题,规避实际运行中不可能发生的场景,降低系统规划结果的保守性,文章提出一种考虑时间相关性的微能源网鲁棒规划模型。该模型在计及多重源荷不确定性的基础上,进一步考虑新能源出力与冷、热、电负荷的时间相关性。通过算例对传统不确定集与所提出的改进不确定集进行对比分析,验证了所提模型及方法的优越性和有效性。

Based on the principle of energy cascade utilization,the micro energy grid can achieve a high penetration of renewable energy such as wind and solar, and meet the electrical, heating and cooling loads in the region. In general, the planning and design of the micro energy grid includes the equipment selection and capacity configuration of various devices for energy generation, storage, and conversion. However, there are multiple uncertainties in the renewable energy output and various demands in the micro energy grid. In order to enhance the robustness of the system planning results, the uncertainty sets of renewable energy output and various demands are considered to establish a robust planning of micro energy grid. However,this method makes the system planning results too conservative, and reduces system economics. To overcome the above problems, this paper proposes a time-dependent micro energy grid robust planning model, which takes into account the time-dependent uncertainty of multiple source loads avoiding the impossible scenarios in practice. This model is a typical min-max-min problem and can be solved efficiently by the column-and-constraint generation(C&CG) algorithm. The traditional uncertainty set and the improved uncertainty set are compared and analyzed in case studies to verify the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed model.