社会学习与消费升级——来自中国电影市场的经验证据

Social Learning and Consumption Upgrading——Evidence from China’s Film Industry

文化服务产业消费“扩容”与“提质”对于中国当前消费升级至关重要。以2012—2016年中国1854部电影为研究对象,本文将每日电影院层面票房数据汇总至全国层面,构建“电影—日”全国票房数据。为避免弱工具变量问题,采用新近发展的套索(LASSO)回归选择最优的天气与空气污染变量作为电影首映周非预期票房的工具变量,识别了社会学习对电影跨期消费增长的影响。研究发现:受外生冲击影响的电影首映周非预期票房变化对于后续周票房存在显著的正向跨期溢出效应,且该溢出效应随着时间推移而逐渐减小。进一步地,制作质量越高、事前质量信息不确定性越高以及市场偏好越集中,电影消费的跨期溢出效应就越明显。这一结果表明,社会学习是引致电影消费跨期溢出效应的主要机制,观察学习与社会网络外部性等机制并未得到实证证据的支持。总体而言,本文揭示了社会学习是影响电影消费“扩容”与“提质”的关键因素,从个体间微观互动机制这一全新视角为激发中国新一轮消费升级提供了可行的实践路径。

China’s ongoing consumption upgrading has made it crucial for firms in the culture industry to boost product quantity and improve quality.Using national box office data of 1854 movies between 2012 and 2016,this paper exploits the effect of social learning on movie consumption in long terms.To avoid the problem of weak instrumental variables,this paper uses LASSO-chosen optimal weather and air pollution instruments as exogenous shocks.We find opening week consumption shock has a positive and significant impact on consumption in the following weeks,and it shows a decreasing trend over weeks.Furthermore,it is stronger for higher quality movies,under higher uncertainty about ex ante quality information or with more concentrated market preferences,suggesting that consumption influence is mostly driven by social learning,instead of observation learning or social network externalities.Therefore,this paper shows that social learning is a key factor both boosting product quantity and improving quality in film consumption,providing a feasible practical path for driving China’s consumption upgrading from a new perspective of social connection mechanism.