贵州省农业气象灾害的变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响

Change Characteristics of Agrometeorological Disasters in Guizhou Province and Its Influence on Main Crops

运用贵州省1998—2017年水灾、旱灾、风雹、冷冻4种农业气象灾害受灾面积及主要农作物产量的数据,使用曲线拟合分析了贵州气象灾害变化特征。同时,基于灰色关联度研究了4种农业气象灾害的变化对稻谷、小麦、玉米单产的影响。结果表明,4种农业气象灾害受灾面积整体呈下降趋势,农作物受灾面积的大小排序为:干旱>水灾>风雹>冷冻。4种气象灾害对贵州整个粮食单产的影响排序为:旱灾>风雹、冷冻>水灾。4种气象灾害对稻谷、小麦、玉米3种主要农作物单产的影响排序为:风雹>水灾>旱灾>冷冻。针对稻谷、小麦、玉米3种农作物,同一种气象灾害的影响程度不同。

Based on the data of flood,drought,hail and freezing in Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2017,the variation characteristics of meteorological disasters in Guizhou Province were analyzed by curve fitting.Meanwhile,based on the grey relational degree,the effects of four agrometeorological disasters on the yield per unit area of rice,wheat and crop were studied.The results showed that the disaster areas of four agrometeorological disasters showed a downward trend as a whole,and the order of the disaster areas of crops was as follows:drought>flood>hail>freezing.The impact of four meteorological disasters on the whole grain yield was in the order:drought>hail,freezing>flood.However,the effects of four meteorological disasters on the yield per unit area of rice,wheat and crop were in the order:hail>flood>drought>freezing.The impact of the same meteorological disaster was different for crop,rice and wheat.