在轨可修复单机可靠性分析方法

A Reliability Analysis Method for On-Orbit Repairable Single-Unit

在深空探测中,单机具有在轨修复能力有助于提高飞行器系统的可靠性。目前对在轨可修复单机的可靠性问题鲜有研究。建立和分析了在轨可修复单机的可用度模型,推导出可修复单机的瞬态可用度计算公式,通过模拟仿真,计算了不同修复率下的单机可用度变化趋势,与非可修复单机的可用度仿真结果进行了比较。并利用可修复单机的稳态可用度给出了对任务末期修复率和失效率关系的快速估计方法。研究结果表明,在轨修复率越高,在任务周期内可修复单机的可靠性越高;单机具有较高的修复率还可缓解研制阶段对单机可靠性的需求压力。

During deep space exploration,the ability of being able to be repaired for an on-orbit unit can greatly improve the reliability of spacecraft system. However,researches on single-unit reliability with the influence caused by the on-orbit repair are really scarce. An availability model and its state equations of on-orbit repairable single-units are studied, and its transient availability formula is proposed. The availability with different repair rates of a repairable single-unit is calculated,and compared with a non-repairable one. A method for quick estimating the expected reliability at the end of mission by applying the relationship between repair rate and failure rate is presented. It is shown that the higher on-orbit repair rate,the higher reliability of a singleunit. The high on-orbit repair ability can also reduce the requirement on the reliability of a developing single-unit.