汇率影响贸易竞争力的供给侧渠道效应研究

Research on Supply-side Mechanism for RMB Exchange Rate Affecting Trade Competitiveness

近年来,人民币汇率制度改革取得显著成效,汇率中间价形成机制不断完善,波动幅度不断扩大;与此同时,我国对外贸易也扭转了粗放扩张的局面,提质增效趋势明显。分析汇率影响贸易竞争力的供给侧渠道机制,并使用2002-2017年间我国省级面板数据检验总体效应和区域差异,结果表明:(1)人民币实际升值通过直接激励效应、刺激技术创新、抑制外商投资有利于贸易竞争力地提升,但升值促进资本密度提高会对贸易竞争力产生消极影响。(2)东中西部地区的渠道效应存在差异:东部地区贸易竞争力同时受直接激励效应、出口学习、技术创新驱动;中部地区更加依赖出口学习、劳动力优势;西部由于承接产业迁移呈现出与东部类似的渠道效应,但更加依赖出口学习,受外资的不利影响也更大;(3)汇率制度改革及实际升值总体有利于贸易竞争力提升,这种积极效应由东部向中西部逐步减弱。总体上,东部地区在汇率制度改革和升值的冲击下表现出较强的调适能力。

In recent years,the reform of RMB exchange rate system has made notable progress.Formation mechanism of its intermediate rate has improved and the fluctuation range has continuously expanded.Meanwhile,China's foreign trade has reversed the situation of extensive expansion and the trend of improving quality and efficiency is obvious.Supply-side mechanism of exchange rate affecting trade competitiveness is analyzed and provincial panel data from 2002 to 2017 is used to test the overall effect and regional differences.The results show:(1)The real appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the promotion of trade competitiveness through direct incentive effect,stimulating technological innovation and depressing foreign investment,while the increase of capital density has negative impact on the competitiveness of trade;(2)There exist significantly regional differences in channel effects.Direct incentive effects,export learning and technological innovation contribute to trade competitiveness of the eastern region.The central region depends more on export learning and labor comparative advantage.Due to the industry migration,the western region has similar channel effects to the east,but it is more dependent on the export learning effect and suffers more from foreign investment;(3)The reform of the exchange rate system and appreciation in general contribute to the promotion of trade competitiveness.This positive effect weakens from the east to the west and the eastern provinces show the strongest adjustment ability in general.