高比例新能源渗透下天然气发电装机容量分配研究

Study on Capacity Allocation for Gas-fired Power Generation Units Based on High Penetration of Renewable Energy

为研究高比例新能源渗透下天然气发电装机容量分配,在掌握不同型式天然气发电机组调峰能力和经济性的基础上,以燃气蒸汽联合循环集中式发电、热电联供2种类型机组的年利用时间和装机容量分配为规划变量,以各规划期高比例可再生能源电力系统中的发电量结构为边界条件,以可再生能源发电量消纳空间和天然气发电成本等为约束,建立天然气发电装机规模分配模型。结果表明:在设定的约束条件下,因高比例可再生能源消纳需求,热电联供机组装机容量有所增加,但占天然气发电装机比例逐渐下降,由2020年的43.4%下降至2035年的21.8%;集中式发电机组装机容量则相应由62.2 GW增长至290.0 GW;天然气发电机组对可再生能源发电量的消纳空间在规划期末年与期望值达到平衡;集中式发电项目的成本为659.4~670.0元/MWh,热电联供项目则为574.3~594.4元/MWh;发电用天然气消费量占比由2020年的18.21%增长至2035年的30.60%。

To study installed capacity allocation of the gas-fired power generation unit with high proportion of new energy penetration,based on the peak-regulation performances and economy of gas-fired power generation units with various configurations,the planning model for capacity allocation of gas-fired power units in 2020-2035 was established,where,the two variables of centralized generation(CG)and cogeneration of heating and power(CHP)based on combined cycle,annual utilization hours and installed capacity,were set as planning objectives;the electric power structure with high proportion of renewable energy and power system in each planning period was given as boundary conditions;and the required consumption space and the power cost of gas-fired power generation units were considered as constraints.This paper concludes that,at the constraints as set in this work,the CHP installed capacity increases while its percentage in gas-fired power total capacity declines from 43.4%in 2020 to 21.8%in 2035;the installed capacity of CG units increases from 62.2 GW to 290.0 GW due to the required consumption of renewable energies.The space of renewable energy consumption contributed by gas-fired power units arrives at a balance with the expected value.The cost of CG units ranges from 659.4 Yuan/MWh to 670.0 Yuan/MWh,while that of CHP units from 574.3 Yuan/MWh to 594.4 Yuan/MWh.The natural gas consumption percentage by power generation in the planning years increases from 18.21%to 30.60%.